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Table of Contents
Web Notes
Web Notes -- Samizdat Express
Business on the World Wide Web -- fall schedule for this chat program
DSL vs. cable for high-speed Internet accessby Richard Seltzer
Business opportunities opened by high-speed Internet access by Richard Seltzer
Wireless Internet from a business perspectiveby Richard Seltzer
Here comes wireless -- watch out for the riptideby Richard Seltzer
New electronic texts -- from The Gutenberg Project
Online shopping -- Richard Seltzer's book Shop Online the Lazy Way (from Macmillan) is now available in stores and from Amazon.com Several related files are available at his Web site:
Complete, edited transcript of all past sessions are available at www.samizdat.com/chat.html
These sessions are hosted by Richard Seltzer seltzer@samizdat.com . Please send email with your follow-on questions and comments, suggestions for future topics, and requests to receive email reminders about upcoming sessions.
Topics scheduled:
This article is based on my personal observations and what I learned at my weekly chat program "Business on the World Wide Web", on September 16, 1999. Thanks in particular to Michael Katz from MediaOne, and Amanda Berlied and Anthony Alvarez from Acunet, who were the invited guests for that program. The complete transcript is available at www.samizdat.com/chat110.html For details about the chat program, the upcoming schedule, and earlier transcripts see www.samizdat.com/chat.html
Today's choice of high-speed access for the home or very small business sounds like a technology question -- DSL or cable? But it's really a question of quality of service: you are choosing a company to do business with, not just another flavor of modem.
In the past, most people depended on dial-up access -- the other choices: ISDN or a dedicated T1 line were mainly intended for businesses, and only the rich and technically astute would have made that choice for the home.
Now, depending on where you live, you may have a choice of cable access (from your cable TV provider) or digital subscriber line (DSL) which delivers high speed Internet signals over standard copper telephone lines
Both approaches offer the benefits of constant connection. Instead of having to dial up every time you need to use the Internet, you are on 24 hours a day. When you no longer have to face dial up delays, you may start using the Internet more frequently, or differently -- whenever you need a piece of information quickly. Except in case of catastrophe, you also avoid typical random dial up frustrations -- not being able to connect at all at the very moment when you absolutely need to get online. And you don't face the prospect of randomly losing your connection in the middle of a chat or an auction or at the moment of sending an important email.
If you already have a second phone line, upgrading to cable or DSL may cost you very little or even save you money. When you are connected by DSL, you can carry on ordinary phone conversations at the same time as working on the Internet, over the same phone line. Likewise, if your cable company is set up to handle both downstream (from the Internet to your house) and upstream traffic (from your house to the Internet) over cable, then you won't need a second phone line anymore. But be sure to ask about this when shopping for cable access, because some providers use a setup that requires a telephone line for the upstream traffic.
Both cable and DSL are likely to provide you with downstream speeds ten times or more faster than a 56K dialup modem. Just how fast depends on the setup that the provider has established; and, in the case of cable, also depends on how many other people in your neighborhood are using this service and what they are doing with it.
Cable today is capable of 10 megabits per second, but most providers offer a lower speed, balancing to provide optimum service to an optimum number of people. For example, Media One today offers 1.5 Mbits downstream and 300 K upstream.
DSL is typically slower, depending once again on the setup established by the provider. For example, Acunet today offers 684 K downstream and 90K upstream.
But the speed that you get with DSL is constant, predictable; while with cable, your bandwidth is shared with other users in your neighborhood. If your cable provider has built a robust infrastructure and has equipment and policies in place to quickly cope with fluctuations in demand, then your service may be uniformly fast. MediaOne claims that that is the case with their service. But some cable providers, particularly ones with less experience in the Internet business or ones that are trying to minimize costs, may deliver wildly fluctuating speeds, depending on the time of day, and changing as more people sign up, with the worst case being prime-time speeds that are as slow as dialup.
The shared line for cable can also raise concerns about the security of the information on your PC. If the service is not set up with proper safeguards, it is possible for other people in your neighborhood to use the cable line to access your machine. Once again, the important factor is the experience and professionalism of the provider. Established providers, like MediaOne, reportedly have routine procedures in place to provide the necessary protection.
Costs also vary widely from one provider to another. But typically, DSL costs more, especially for startup. In most cases, cable customers are already customers of the cable company. They have a cable connection to their home, and this is just an add-on service, which the provider can make very attractive with a variety of special deals, bundled in with their TV service. They may provide the cable modem the same way they provide the standard cable box, as a rental that is invisibly buried in your monthly bill. DSL uses your existing phone line, but typically requires an activation fee of about $100 (someone has to come to your home to set it up) and purchase of a DSL modem for about $100. Once set up, typical monthly fees run $49 (MediaOne) for cable and $79 (Acunet) for DSL.
Cable and DSL also differ in terms of their target markets. Cable, based as it is on home cable TV, aims at the home market. That is the kind of customer they are used to dealing with. Business customers tend to be more demanding, because more is at stake; and it would be expensive for a cable company to gear up to meet business-style support standards. DSL is typically available to both business and home, sometimes with separate pricing plans.
Cable companies come to the Internet from an entirely different business -- home entertainment. There is a long learning curve as they hire and train people to install and support the new service and to provide quick and effective answers to the questions of typical users. Some of these companies have been delivering Internet over cable for two to three years, and are now very experienced and effective. Others are just making the change now, and their first customers are likely to suffer.
DSL providers are typically established ISPs that are expanding their existing service in partnership with telephone companies. On the one hand, they are relatively new to DSL; but on the other hand, they are likely to be experts in the Internet, and well staffed to handle support issues and typical customer questions.
Geography is the main factor, but that's probably beyond your control. Cable is only offered in certain communities and then, typically, only by the cable TV provider who has a monopoly in that geographic area. If your cable company doesn't offer it, then you are out of luck -- unless you want to move. While some Boston suburbs have had cable Internet access for 2-3 years, most of Boston itself still does not have this service. That's the case for me. Living in the West Roxbury section of Boston, I have no choice but DSL today.
Meanwhile, ISPs are rolling out DSL service to one town after another, rather like they added POPs for dialup service several years ago. Once again you have to be in an area that has this service to get it, but the rollout is determined by demand and competition, and is happening very quickly, from multiple providers.
Typically, both cable and DSL providers have quick-look-up applications at their Web sites so you can see if they service your area yet or plan to get there soon.
As for me, because I live in Boston, I don't really have a choice today. But even if I had a choice, I'd probably lean toward DSL, in large part because of the dedicated bandwidth. I expect that over the next one to two years as high-speed access becomes common place, Web sites and applications that take full advantage of that new higher bandwidth will multiply and flourish. Even if the number of users sharing the line remains constant, the volume of data that they will be pulling into their homes is likely to go up many fold, and the time they spend on line is also likely to increase. That means that service based on shared bandwidth is likely to degrade. It might feel good today, but it could slow intolerably within a year or two.
In any case, I finally made the leap -- I've signed up for DSL with Acunet. After I've had some first-hand experience with it, maybe I'll have some more to say.
This article is based on my personal observations and what I learned at my weekly chat program "Business on the World Wide Web", on September 23, 1999. The complete transcript is available at www.samizdat.com/chat111.html For details about the chat program, the upcoming schedule, and earlier transcripts see www.samizdat.com/chat.html
Access to the Internet at speeds 10 times or more greater than what you can get with dialup is now inexpensive and readily available for home and small business -- by DSL and cable -- in many communities around Boston, and is spreading rapidly in other cities across the country.
Let's think back a minute. When the Web got started -- with the availability of the first browsers back in the fall of 1993, with few exceptions, people could only connect to the Internet from work or from college. Then, gradually, ISPs set up shop and began offering dialup service in one community after another -- first at 14.4, then 28.8, now 56K. For several years, the only real business on the Internet was business-to-business: companies selling to and working with other companies, linking their corporate networks to one another securely for joint projects, making information available to one another, holding private discussions, and doing secure transactions online. Meanwhile, the measure of success on the public Internet was traffic, not money -- you tried to get as many people as possible to come to your site; but it was like opening day at a new mall -- with curious crowds checking things out and collecting freebies. Sites with the largest audiences got some ad revenue, but very few companies turned a profit directly from what they did online.
Finally, last year, the number of people who could connect from home reached critical mass, and ecommerce and other consumer-oriented for-profit businesses took off. The promise had been there all along, but you needed enough people for the true commercial craziness to begin.
Now we are at the beginning of the second wave. Businesses and colleges already have high speed access to the Internet -- meaning that it is possible to get reasonable quality audio and video. But for the rest of us, the Internet is still largely an experience of text and static graphics. Yes, commercial Web sites have animated images flashing and bouncing and prancing across their pages -- trying to catch your attention, and making it difficult for you to read. Yes, streaming audio and video can deliver multi-media content without you having to wait forever for huge files to download over your modem. But it's like having to crank the engine of your model-T, or develop your own photos in your basement. The experience you get tends to be quirky, jerky, and techie. When you first experience this technology, you are amazed at what you can hear and see at dialup speeds; but you end up using those capabilities rarely. They simply aren't compelling.
You should expect major changes when high-speed access becomes widespread, similar to what happened when dialup access reached critical mass. When we'll reach that point is a matter of guesswork -- probably anywhere from one to three years from now. But we can already see the beginnings of business opportunities that might flourish when that time comes.
The opportunities seem to fall into three categories: direct, indirect, and background. Direct would involve selling audio/video content and experiences over the Web, or selling advertising based on the audience that such content attracts. Indirect would be use of audio/video/3D to help sell products or to improve your online delivery of service (such as training and fix-it services).
By "background" opportunities, I mean the camera is just on -- with no writing, no directing -- it's just part of the experience you expect.
Some background-style applications are viable today at low speed -- like remote monitoring and security. With high-speed acess, they become more compelling for users and become commonplace, changing ordinary business practice.
The beginnings of remote monitoring are already here: security services, even daycare centers are using Web cams. With high speed access, the image becomes clearer and the range of what can be seen becomes greater.
Participants in our recent chat session provided a few practical examples.
One said, "The webcam security device doesn't necessarily have to be high-speed -- we caught a nighttime thief in our facility when one person with a webcam set it to record a still every 10 seconds."
Another mentioned that his company set up a Quickcam near the candy bar and suddenly the pay rate went up. Apparently, the fact that you know the camera is on affects your behavior even if no one is watching the output.
Someone else mentioned that the daughter of a co-worker of his went to Gymnastic Camp in Canada last summer. The camp had about a dozen cameras, and she could regularly see her kid perform and have fun.
Now, I wouldn't like to be monitored by my boss. But I am sure that there are bosses who are very insecure about work-at-home, and don't know how to manage by performance, who would gladly sign up for a service that let them see their workers -- any time, all the time -- and there are probably companies that would use many more work-at-home workers if they had such a mechanism available.
In the not too distant future, imagine a webcam in your car, embedded somewhere. Someone breaks in and the webcam clicks on -- you or the police or a security company sees who's in the car, what's happening, even where the car is...
Doing that with a car requires wireless access. But that too is already here at low-bandwidth, and faster, more flexible, easier to use wireless access is coming soon -- another wave of opportunity and change.
Some video applications don't require high bandwidth, but when the speed is available new opportunities will arise. Today's streaming video over dialup connections provides a small image moving jerkily. At some point the image becomes clear enough and the motion smooth enough that it looks natural and inspires the same kind of trust that comes from looking someone in the eye. This reminds me of Neal Stephenson's novel Snow Crash -- where the breakthrough in virtual reality arrives when you can reliably read the expressions on the other person's face. Look for that point in video over the Internet. When millions of people can connect simply, easily, and inexpensively at speeds that make it easy to see detail and motion clear enough and smooth enough so you can reliably read what the other person really means -- so you can know when to trust and when to doubt, can see emotion and nervousness and conviction -- then we're in a new ballgame.
I used to say that on the Internet a picture needed to be worth 10,000 words, not just a thousand -- it needed to be good enough to convey that much information because it cost so much in terms of the time to load it and the space to store it. Mere decoration -- that conveyed no meaning -- got in the way of visitors connecting with dialup modems. And it took creativity to make pictures that were good enough to be worth the slowdown.
Well, high speed access will change that equation. Then two-way live video will be able to quickly and simply communicate the full range of human emotion -- more than could ever be conveyed by words. And now is the time to think about how that will change your business or what new businesses you will be able to create.
This article is based on my personal observations and what I learned at my weekly chat program "Business on the World Wide Web", on September 30, 1999. Our invited guest on this chat session was Alan Reiter, from Wireless Internet & Mobile Computing www.wirelessinternet.com The complete transcript is available at www.samizdat.com/chat112.html For details about the chat program, the upcoming schedule, and earlier transcripts see www.samizdat.com/chat.html
I see two huge waves of business change coming on the Internet. One is based on high-speed access. The other is wireless.
We're going to be facing a whole new range of issues, opportunities and risks. And just when you might have thought that the Web and traditional business were working out some kind of peaceful co-existence, radical change hits again.
Now what's the likely direction of business change from the wireless wave?
Our invited guest on this chat session was Alan Reiter, from Wireless Internet & Mobile Computing.
As Alan pointed out, today, wireless Internet includes paging, digital cellular and PCS. It's a global business. Alpha pagers have e-mail addresses, many cellular and PCS phones can accept e-mail. He sees wireless chatting coming soon, also wireless banking, wireless stock trading, and wireless shopping.
A set of diverse applications like that makes me wonder if -- for the short term -- we might see many low-cost single-function gadgets: maybe giveaways linked to one or just a few information and transaction services. For instance, it might make sense for an E-Trade to give away free wireless gadgets to its customers -- a gadget that made it easy to trade with them, but only with them. In other words, we could see a phenomenon like the early days of transistor radios. There was a brief window back then when radio stations or advertisers would give away free transistor radios that could only receive one station -- theirs.
Alan believes that the real growth will come from general purpose devices, that can accommodate a variety of services. He believes that devices with an operating system are the future. You will be able to use your handheld pager, etc. for different applications. Special-purpose wireless devices will be a very niche market. The future is devices for millions of people.
For the long-term, I agree that general purpose will win, in part because with advances in technology, we're make increasing functionality available at lower cost, in smaller boxes, and using less power. But in the short term we could see an interesting and large window of opportunity, with lots of little gadgets that connect to a single source of information or transactions and social activity and given away free to customers (hoping to "lock" them in).
Think of gameboys, as opposed to the general purpose computers. Think of wireless gameboy-like gadgets that are preset to link to one and only one Internet-based game-playing service.
Alan doesn't expect to see many single-purpose gadgets like that. Rather he expects branded general-purpose gadgets, like Merrill Lynch pagers or Yahoo phones, that won't be just for trading with Merrill or accessing Yahoo data, but rather will have all the regular features.
I'm inclined to bet on human nature, rather than logic and technology. General purpose, flexible, powerful devices would certainly make sense, and clearly technology will make them possible. But human nature being what it is, I believe that the first shot will be to try to own the customer by giving something away that provides access to just one service or a limited number of services (each of which pay you to be added to the list). We see this kind of thinking in video games. You sell the game box for very little (compared to its cost) and try to make your money selling the razor blades/games. And you make your cheap game box incompatible with your competitors'. Add wireless and Internet, make your handheld gadget as simple as possible. Then you don't sell the gams, but rather sell the game-playing service. Thent he clout of your business model comes in part form the limits of that cheap or giveaway wireless input device -- connecting to your service and only your service.
I don't say that's good or that in the long run it wins. But in the short run, that's what I expect to see.
Agreeing to disagree, Alan pointed to the Palm VII, which is wireless-enabled but still comes with all the Palm computer features. He also points to the Qualcomm PDQ phone, which has a Palm operating system and a phone. Already, BellSouth provides a pager service that lets you do trading and messaging. He doesn't see single-purpose devices becoming a big market... unless prices decrease dramatically.
I, on the other hand, expect that while costs may not decrease dramatically, prices will, and that the short-term market-clout of the single-purpose device will be that you get it for free. Keep in mind that these gadgets might need very little memory or local functionality -- the data related to you is stored on the Internet, at the service you are doing business with, and that's where the software runs. Your gadget is just an input-output device, pre-set to connect to and interact with one and only one remote service. Simple, very low cost, and requiring very little power.
In fact, how long this window of opportunity stays open could depend in large part on batteries. If I can use free single-purpose gadgets for days or weeks or even months without having to recharge the batteries, I might well turn to them repeatedly, even though I've paid for a powerful, general purpose device whose batteries run out far faster.
Alan also mentioned another interesting development: Bluetooth. It's a standard, using radio, not infrared, for connecting devices. He expects Bluetooth devices to hit the market at the end of this year or beginning of next year. Think about the possibilities of having, for example, one screen in your pocket that is connected wirelessly to you palmtop and phone and pager -- which are now much smaller because they all use one screen.
Interestingly, that technology could support both business models -- general purpose and single-purpose. My giveaway game gadget might hook to that single screen as well.
This article is based on my personal observations and what I learned at my weekly chat program "Business on the World Wide Web", on October 7, 1999. Our invited guest on this chat session was Alan Reiter, from Wireless Internet & Mobile Computing www.wirelessinternet.com The complete transcript is available at www.samizdat.com/chat113.html For details about the chat program, the upcoming schedule, and earlier transcripts see www.samizdat.com/chat.html
First, let's keep in mind that there are two different flavors of wireless, which have very different business implications.
There is fixed wireless which includes wireless over local area networks (LANs) up to a few hundred feet, and also wide area wireless, which with fixed antennas can cover a metropolitan area. When a laptop with a compatible radio modem is within range of an antenna, it can connect to the Internet.
In addition, there is "wireless wireless," which, as Alan explains, includes connecting with cell phones, pagers, or palm computers and other gadgets, piggybacking on existing wireless phone and data services. For instance, with a PCS data service like Sprint, you would get Internet coverage wherever Sprint has voice coverage.
When I worked at Digital, many of us had little transceivers attached to our laptops, so from most rooms in most buildings inside the company, we could connect to the LAN. Soon everyone was carrying their laptops to meetings and doing email and checking documents on the Web during the boring parts. But you had to be within a narrow range for these things to work.
Last week, I met with Kathleen Warner, who used to manage Digital's intranet and now is in charge of IT at Boston College. She mentioned that, within a few months, BC plans to be the world's first wireless campus. They will have servers strategically placed throughout the campus, so wherever you are, you can connect. She also mentioned that the oldest building on campus was the first to be equipped for wireless -- it was so old that it would have been difficult if not impossible to wire it.
In cases, like that, wireless is an inexpensive and flexible way to build the IT infrastructure of a company or university campus. But the activities it supports are very much the same as usual -- whatever you can do with ordinary PCs and laptops.
Eventually, I'd expect this kind of wireless capability to be tied to real estate value, like office buildings and convention centers. I'd also expect to find fixed wireless in airports and other places where travelers with laptops often have to wait. But for now, Alan notes, hotels are still scrambling to provide high-speed Internet connection by wire and cable, and wireless is considered "esoteric."
Wireless wireless is a whole different ballgame. It's not just an alternative way for today's users to get to the same Web pages and email they have in the past. As Reuters pointed out in a report about the expected announcement from Oracle of "a product to let consumers shop electronically from any existing mobile phone," such a move "could rapidly triple the
number of Internet shoppers worldwide." If that, in fact, is the case either for the Oracle offering or other similar products, the content and the format of content on the Internet is likely to change to appeal to this vast new audience.
First, we can expect that the growing popularity of wireless Internet will mean that text, as opposed to multimedia and graphics, will become increasingly important. The limitations of the screens of cell phones, pagers, and palm computers -- black and white and very small -- and also the limitations of text-to-voice conversion will, for the short-term, rule out multi-media and fancy graphics.
In other words, we can expect a wave of change that is completely opposite to the multimedia temptations of high-speed access. I wonder how many online retailers will be caught in the riptide -- investing heavily in video at a time when huge numbers of text-only shoppers are coming to the Web for the first time.
All the services that want to appeal to people accessing the Internet with wireless gadgets, which includes the major news services, online stock trading companies, and shopping sites, will want to have simple plain text versions of their pages, which can be viewed on the tiny screens of those gadgets, can be navigated easily with text-based browsers, or can be heard over a phone thanks to voice conversion. Maybe they'll do this in addition to, not instead of, their whiz-bang flash and splash sites, but text-centric pages will be essential for their success.
That could be an immediate benefit for text-based search engines, and also for the blind, who are locked out by fancy effects, but who can "read" plain text with text-to-voice converters.
It would be good if there were a simple way to connect the wireless gadgets with conventional text-to-voice converters, and then make the converters compact enough to be portable. Or maybe the conversion will happen on the network and the text be delivered by voice over a phone. Either way that could help the blind and also those who would sometimes like to hear their news and email, perhaps while driving or jogging.
Oh, brave new world, filling all our idle moments and downtime with connectedness and wisdom...
Adding dozens of new titles every month, Gutenberg has already made over 2000 etexts available for free over the Internet. These include classic works of literature and history, as well as out-of-print and little-known works by great authors. If you can, connect by ftp, rather than the Web, to get the most recent ones. Here's a list of those recently added, alphabetized by author. The file name is useful for fetching the text from the ftp site. Many of these are also available on diskette from PLEASE COPY THIS DISK for those who cannot get them themselves. For the current catalog, check http://www.samizdat.com/catalog.html or send your email request to seltzer@samizdat.com)
Maynard Barbour -- That Mainwaring Affair (mnwrn10.txt)
William Bray -- Extracts from the Diary of William Bray (drbry10.txt)
Burke -- Thoughts on Present Discontents, etc. (thdsc10.txt)
Thomas Carlyle -- History of Friedrich II of Prussia, Volume 11 (11frd10.txt)
G.K. Chesterton -- Utopia of Usurers, et al (uusry10.txt)
Susan Fenimore Cooper
-- The Lumley Autograph (lumly10.txt)
-- Female Suffrage (sffrg10.txt)
Bernardin de Saint Pierre -- Paul and Virginia (pandv10.txt)
Maria Edgeworth -- Murad the Unlucky, etc. (murad10.txt)
George Eliot
-- Brother Jacob (brjcb10.txt)
-- The Lifted Veil (lftvl10.txt)
Elizabeth Gaskell -- Mary Barton (mbrtn10.txt)
Johann von Goethe
-- Egmont (7gmnt10.txt)
-- Iphigenie auf Tauris (in German) (iphgn10.txt)
Herbert A. Giles
-- China and the Manchus (7mnch10.txt)
-- Chinese Sketches (chnsk10.txt)
Emma Goldman -- Anarchism and Other Essays (nrcsm10.txt)
H. Rider Haggard -- King Solomon's Mines (7kslm10.txt)
O. Henry -- Strictly Business (stbus10.txt)
Herodotus -- An Account of Egypt, Trans. by Macaulay (agypt10.txt)
Henry James -- A Little Tour In France (altif10.txt)
Rudyard Kipling -- The Day's Work - Part I (dywrk10.txt)
Jack London -- On the Makaloa Mat/Island Tales (mklmt10.txt)
Lord Macaulay -- Misc Writings and Speeches, volume 1 (1mwsm10.txt), volume 2 (2mwsm10.txt), volume3 (3mwsm10.txt), volume 4 (4mwsm10.txt)
Frank Frankfort Moore -- Phyllis of Philistia (phoph10.txt)
Thomas More -- Utopia (utopi10.txt)
Louise Muhlbach -- The Daughter of an Empress (dmprs10.txt)
A.J. O'Reilly -- Alvira, Heroine of Vesuvius (alvra10.txt)
Edgar Allan Poe, Raven Edition, volume 1 (poe1v10.txt), volume 2 (poe2v10.txt), volume 3 (poe3v10.txt), volume 4 (poe4v10.txt), volume 5 (poe5v10.txt)
Joshua Reynolds -- Seven Discourses on Art (artds10.txt)
George Bernard Shaw -- You Never Can Tell (nvrct10.txt)
Tobias Smollett -- The Expedition of Humphry Clinker (txohc10.txt)
Algernon Charles Swinburne
-- Rosamund (rsmnd10.txt)
-- The Tale of Balen (balen10.txt)
Leo Tolstoy -- Childhood (chldh10.txt)
Anthony Trollope -- The Prime Minister (prmns10.txt)
Mark Twain -- The Bridge-Builders (brdgb10.txt)
Lew Wallace -- Ben-Hur: A Tale of the Christ, by Lew Wallace (benhr10.txt)
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