The author is the director of the MIT Artificial Intelligence Lab and the builder of a few pioneering robots. He is not an extropian futurist who predicts revolutionary things in the indeterminate future, but instead a cautious prognosticator of the likely developments over the next 20-30 years, as the emergent technologies of robotics and biotechnology follow an intertwined developmental course parallel in scope to that which the computer revolution has already achieved.
His starting point is the central tenet of molecular biology -- all the peculiarities and details of life are comprehensible through the close study of molecular interactions. Therefore the brain is the functional bio-equivalent of a computer. If Moore's Law of computer development continues, computers will be a thousand times more powerful in a decade or two, at least. At some point, they will be better able to do things the brain now does best. Computers already perform complex tasks, like simultaneously setting prices for many interlocked goods and services, better than the most seasoned, trained human.
As computers accelerate our understandings of robotics and bio-technology, it is likely that your kids, or their kids, will have the following options open to them:
Grand new technologies like these have no respect for age-old
traditions and practices. They upset many cherished myths
about the specialness of our proud species. It should come
as no surprise that new ways and means are often reviled and
fought against by many. One reason even the near-term future
is perilous to predict is this arch-reactionary tendency to resist
change that has served our species well through its
adolescence. But the pact we have made with technology and
science has thus far enabled commoners to live better than kings
once did, extended our lifespan, and greatly increased the
carrying capacity of our planet, at least for homo sapiens.
It is unlikely that we, as a species, will renounce it.
Instead, we will be
maids of honor and best men for the coming marriage of robotics
and biotechnology.
This book is a sober assessment of that union's prospects.
Dialogue on favorite books with Deane Rink before and during his latest trek to Antarctica, with a note from Bill Ransom and a digression about Frank Herbert (a.k.a Bookbabble 101) -- a very long and rapidly growing document:
Book reviews by Richard SeltzerWebseltzerbooks.com |